#1 - Forget about Monte Carlo simulations (for now)

Now I’m not saying that Monte Carlo simulations don’t work, just that all too often the plans that the simulations use are incomplete, incorrect or have poor estimates.The Monte Carlo technique uses project plan data to calculate the most likely end date. Since most plans are full of holes this doesn’t do anything other than turn bad data into more bad data. Remember: garbage in, garbage out.

Instead, start building up your risk management skills by identifying potential risks and then quantifying them. This will give you a much better feel for why your project might go wrong. You can use the results to improve your project plans by including specific risk management activities. Over time you’ll create better plans.

Once you get better at creating plans that are comprehensive and accurate, then you can start using Monte Carlo tools.